Examining the Prospect of Terror Attacks on Schools in America:
Another Shocking September Morning

John Callery
Center for Advanced Defense Studies
Washington, D.C.

In the month of September, Islamist terrorist forces unleashed another devastating campaign of terror in their self professed “Holy War” on the most innocents of our worldwide society. It was not shocking to the bureaucrats or counterterrorism experts, they had been expounding on this theme for several years prior to the incident. The unsuspecting were the children and families that were devastated by the Islamic radical’s actions on that peaceful September morning. However on this September date their swords did not find two twin towers in southern Manhattan, rather they were used to slaughter lambs in the village of Beslan, in the state of North Ossetia, not New York, in the nation of Russia, not the United States, the date was September 3, 2004 not September 11, 2001. Over twelve-hundred Russian citizens were huddled into the gymnasium of Beslan’s school number-one on the joyous and celebrated opening day of school on September 1, 2004. When the carnage was over, 331 Russian citizens would lie dead on the school grounds, over half of them elementary-school age children, 700 wounded or maimed for life and 26 dead terrorists (mostly bearded men) . It was the result of a clever plan of approximately 20 Islamic terrorists who took the school by force, firing automatic rifles into the air and huddling the mass into the school’s gymnasium, that they quickly and expertly booby trapped with C-4 explosives in case of a Russian police raid. On the third day of the siege, one of the bombs that was precariously hoisted in the basketball hoop exploded and set off a 20 minute rein of fire on the hostages by the captors and Russian Special Forces who had responded to the scene days earlier. The women and children were caught in the middle of the cross fire that ensued. At day’s end, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin went on national television and pledged to strengthen the Russian security services and mobilize the nation against the “total, cruel and full-scale war” that was being waged on his citizenry by “international terrorism.” Putin’s statement was very reminiscent of another President who made a very similar statement of conviction against Islamic terrorism on September 12, 2001. Therefore, as of September 4, 2005, the world’s two superpowers had a common enemy, State Sponsored (Iran) Fundamental Islamic Terrorism.

To start to understand why the Terror at Beslan occurred, we will attempt to look at the fundamentals of this occurrence. Of course, this will entail going back in time, to examine Islamic terrorist roots in the Caucuses region of Russia and its ties to Al Qaeda. A close inspection of Osama Bin Laden’s statements on children and his personal fatwa (holy statement) on the subject of targeting children and innocents in our global society. Taking this and other information into account, we will look at the build up of actions in Russia that led to the Beslan attack, and what is the current situation in the United States that may possibly mirror Beslan. It will look at lessons learned from the Beslan tragedy, with both tactical intelligence and predictive intelligence in mind. It will compare and contrast the Russian and United States’ current stance on terrorism, a situation that both nations have been dragged into. We will reflect on the chilling prospect of America’s schools being attacked by Islamist terrorism and what the economic fallout would be if such attacks occurred. Finally, what can be done to ready the American public, law enforcement and school administrators for what some see as the inevitable. Are our schools ready for such an unbelievable act? Does America realize the dramatic economic fallout that will follow an attack or series of attacks on grade schools in America? What have the US Government’s own studies that have been done on that subject saying? Is America really in the “Ostrich defense,” is America really hoping this will just go away, do we have time to educate our citizenry and can we choose not to repeat history and be caught hoping and praying to God and Allah to make this threat go away?

To get a better understanding of the situation in the Caucuses, notably Beslan, in the Fall of 2004, we should look at the region’s historical political and religious strife. In the 1400s the Chechens fight the Ottoman Turks eventually being forcibly converted to Islam. In 1877-78 the Chechen’s take advantage of Russia’s involvement in the Russo-Turkish War to rise up in the name of independence. Circa 1905 the Russian Revolution begins providing Chechnya with another opportunity to fight for autonomy. In 1918, the Bolshevik Army defeats the Tsarist White Guard, igniting the conflict between Tsarist North Ossetia (present day Beslan) and Ingushetia (who supported the Bolsheviks). In the 1940s Chechnya continues to rise up against the Soviet Union. Between 1939-45 Dictator Joseph Stalin worries that Chechens and Ingush were Nazi sympathizers during WWII and declares that all are to be deported to Kazakhstan and Serbia. In 1956 the Chechens are repatriated to Chechnya and they find it difficult to assimilate to Russia. In June 1986 Gorbachev introduces Glasnost to the Soviet Union. This stirs a new desire for independence amongst Chechens. In 1992, more than 10,000 Ingush (Muslims living in Chechnya) are forced from Chechnya by violence. From 1994-1996 Russia’s President Boris Yeltsin sends 40,000 Russian troops into the Chechnya region to suppress “rebels,” thus beginning the first Chechen War. In 1999, Chechen separatists join Degestani Muslim radicals in an attempt to form an Islamic state within the Russian Federation. Chechen fighters are led by the enigmatic Shamil Basayev in guerrilla attacks on Russian forces deployed to the region. The rebel attacks show the Russian Government that another military initiative is needed in the region to suppress the rebel’s forces, thus beginning the second Chechen war, which continues until this day in one form or another. On October 23, 2003, the Moscow’s Dubrovka Theatre is seized by Chechen Islamic terrorists who demand the release of Chechen terrorists jailed in Russia and the removal of all Russian military forces from Chechnya. The theatre was ultimately stormed by Russian Special Forces using narcotics gas, which resulted in the death of all the terrorists and 129 of the 700 hostages.

A more contemporary look at Chechnya shows a different and much bleaker picture of Chechnya’s century long strive for total independence. After the fall of the Soviet Empire, Chechnya declared its independence from mother Russia along with dozens of other fledgling newborn republics. However, President Boris Yeltsin decided that Chechnya would not be “free to go.” In 1994, backed by a circle of hard line advisors, Yeltsin’s troops invaded Chechnya and shelled its Capital of Groznyy, Russian troops stormed through the villages in tanks made for battle with NATO forces and killed more than 80,000 “independence fighters” but mostly civilians to include women and children, thousands were left homeless or left to their own defenses in the deadly winters of the Caucuses. Chechnya was left in rubble and lawlessness, much like Afghanistan after its war with the Soviet Union. Out of this terror came terror, Shamil Basayev (killed July 10, 2006), a Chechen Commander who became the face of the Chechnya movement against Russia for the next nine years. Modern day Chechnya is a moonscape, with no economy, seventy percent unemployment, where criminal gangs dominate the social order. The Russian Army that remains behind to control order is corrupt and lawless given to raping, kidnapping and executing civilians in the streets. Whatever aid is given to Chechnya ends up in the hands of the black market. Since the first September tragedy in 2001, President Putin had declared that Basayev was the equivalent of Bin Laden. There are reports of Chechen rebels training in Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan. The Chechnya Islamic terrorists are no doubt heavily influenced by Basayeav’s tactics, ideology and language of Wahabbis and Islamists in the Middle East. Currently Islamic terrorists in Chechnya are being funded by various Wahhabi organizations. Al Qaeda’s presence in Chechnya was headed up by Osama Bin Laden’s protégé Amir ibn al-Khattab who was killed in a classic Russian Intelligence (KGB) operation, where a poisoned letter was delivered to him by an operative in May 2002 a Saudi national who had previously assisted Islamic fighters in Tajik Civil War and Armenia-Azerbaijan War. Until his death in 2006, Basayev was hiding in the mountains of Chechnya along with Abu Walid al-Ghamdi (a relative of three of the 9/11 hijackers). Abu Walid al-Ghamdi leads the terrorist group IIB (Islamic International Brigade), which is unquestionably the hub of all al-Qaeda presence in Chechnya. Another terrorist group operating in Chechnya is United Forces of the Caucasian Mujahideen, a Wahhabi group that was headed by Basayev, but most importantly includes the sha’riah court which provides theological rationales (killing children and attacking schools) for activities such as the Beslan murders. Using this background and history of the region, we should look at the reasoning why Basayev and al Qaeda chose North Ossetia (Beslan) as a place to exact such devastation on society. Unlike the majority of the Caucasus, most North Ossetians are Eastern Orthodox Christians, therefore “making sense” that they be targeted rather then the neighboring Russian Muslim children in Dagestan if you are a true Wahhabists that subscribes to Bin Laden’s rhetoric. Ties between al Qaeda and Chechen leaders go back as far as the 1990s. Basayev met Khattab in Nagorno-Karabakh and traveled to Afghanistan to receive al-Qaeda training along with fellow Chechens. Several elite Chechen Islamists were also Bin Laden’s personal bodyguards in Afghanistan. As fighting in Chechnya intensified in 1999, Bin Laden sent large amounts of money (thought to be $30M) to Basayev and Khattab and then appointed Abu Tariq to oversee the distribution of al Qaeda funds in Chechnya. Abu Tariq was killed in December 2002 and succeeded by Abu Omar a-Salif, another Arab national. Chechen fighters were even found in Afghanistan fighting against U.S. backed Northern Alliance at Mazar-e-Shairiff and Kunduz during Operation Enduring Freedom. This does not include Russian reports that Abu Omar al-Saif bankrolled the Beslan attack and that there were dead Arabs found among the bodies of the Beslan hostage takers. So where did Basayev get his orders to act on this operation and initiate a 20 member suicide mission in Beslan. To understand this better and to see what Bin Laden may have in store for the “Crusaders” (US, Western Governments and their people). By examining two respective statements made by Osama Bin-Laden in October and December 2001, one and three months after 9/11, it becomes obvious where Basayev received his encouragement to act as he did. This Bin Laden treatise is also the crux of the foundation of this paper’s assertion that Al Qaeda inevitably will sanction and ultimately carry out attacks on grade schools in the United States. By carefully looking at Bin Laden’s statements via Al Jazeera in October, 2001 and December 27, 2001, it is apparent that he is softening up the western leaders for a strike on the children of America. The statements are plain on their face and require no Nostradamus-esqe translation. Bin Laden’s statements are paraphrased below, the first statement was made by Bin Laden in a statement on tape that was given to Al-Jezeera, the second statement was made in an interview of Bin Laden by Al Jazeera television reporter Tayseer Alouni:

Statement #1 in December 2001:

1. The history of Arab mujahideen (in Afghanistan), by the grace of God, is clearly written on a snow-white sheet. They set out twenty years ago in the face of the Soviet Union's real and culpable it does not make sense that those who set out to protect the we, if we start counting, how many millions have been turned out into the severe cold. These are the weak and oppressed from among men, women and children (reference to Quranic phrase 4:75) who are today seeking refuge in tents in Pakistan. They did not do any wrong. Just a suspicion and America attacked them so ferociously! One of these things that all humans agree on is that they do not kill innocent children.

2. What has happened in Palestine, and what is going on in Palestine today is the deliberate murder of children. This is utterly revolting, unjust and oppressive and threatens all humanity. To Muhammad al-Durra will happen to their own sons and women tomorrow and there is no power and force except from Allah. Thus, the grave fact is this vicious terrorism that America practices, and which showed it’s most revolting form in Palestine and in Iraq. Bush the Father is the ill-fated man who was the cause of the deaths of over a million Iraqi children, not counting other men and women also killed.

3. I say, it is very important to concentrate on striking the American economy by every possible means. We have seen here, with our own eyes, the true crimes of those who preach 'humanity' and 'freedom.'

4. Each day, the nation of 1200 million Muslims, from the East to the West, experiences slaughter in Palestine and in Iraq and in Somalia and in Southern Sudan and in Kashmir and in the Philippines and in Bosnia and in Chechnya and in Assam and we do not hear a sound. And when the victim stands up, when the oppressed stands up and presents himself for the sake of his faith, they raise their voices.

The second statement made in a Q&A format in October 2001 (note: This is a portion of the entire statement, however the statement in full does not contradict any portion of the statement noted below):
Q [interrupting]: How about the killing of innocent civilians?

BIN LADEN: The killing of innocent civilians, as America and some intellectuals claim, is really very strange talk. Who said that our children and civilians are not innocent and that shedding their blood is justified? That it is lesser in degree? When we kill their innocents, the entire world from east to west screams at us, and America rallies its allies, agents, and the sons of its agents. Who said that our blood is not blood, but theirs is? Who made this pronouncement? Who has been getting killed in our countries for decades? More than 1 million children, more than 1 million children died in Iraq and others are still dying. Why do we not hear someone screaming or condemning, or even someone's words of consolation or condolence?

How come millions of Muslims are being killed? Where are the experts, the writers, the scholars and the freedom fighters, where are the ones who have an ounce a faith in them? They react only if we kill American civilians, and every day we are being killed, children are being killed in Palestine. We should review the books. Human nature makes people stand with the powerful without noticing it. When they talk about us, they know we won't respond to them. In the past, an Arab king once killed an ordinary Arab man. The people started wondering how come kings have the right to kill people just like that. Then the victim's brother went and killed the king in revenge. People were disappointed with the young man and asked him, "How could you kill a king for your brother?" The man said, "My brother is my king." We consider all our children in Palestine to be kings. We kill the kings of the infidels, kings of the crusaders, and civilian infidels in exchange for those of our children they kill. This is permissible in law and intellectually.

Q: So what you are saying is that this is a type of reciprocal treatment. They kill our innocents, so we kill their innocents?

BIN LADEN: So we kill their innocents, and I say it is permissible in law and intellectually, because those who spoke on this matter spoke from a juridical perspective.

Q: What is their position?

BIN LADEN: That it is not permissible. They spoke of evidence that the Messenger of God forbade the killing of women and children. This is true.

Q: This is exactly what I'm asking about.

BIN LADEN: However, this prohibition of the killing of children and innocents is not absolute. It is not absolute. There are other texts that restrict it. I agree that the Prophet Mohammed forbade the killing of babies and women. That is true, but this is not absolute. There is a saying, "If the infidels killed women and children on purpose, we shouldn't shy way from treating them in the same way to stop them from doing it again." The men that God helped [attack, on September 11] did not intend to kill babies; they intended to destroy the strongest military power in the world, to attack the Pentagon that houses more than 64,000 employees, a military center that houses the strength and the military intelligence.

Q: How about the twin towers?

BIN LADEN: The towers are an economic power and not a children's school. Those that were there are men that supported the biggest economic power in the world. They have to review their books. We will do as they do. If they kill our women and our innocent people, we will kill their women and their innocent people until they stop.

Osama Bin Laden mentions the word child or children 10 times in the full statement in December 2001 that is paraphrased above and 24 times in the full Q&A done in October 2001. Being that Bin Laden is a master of intelligence and counter-intelligence and that he has a firm grip on western responses to threats and counter-threats, it should not be over looked that he went out of his way to use the word child ten times in one speech for Al Jazzera. In these remarks he notes that the Americans killed innocent children in their tents in Pakistan, he mentions the deliberate murder of one million Iraqi children by President George H. Bush. He reaffirms his idea of striking the American economy by every means possible and even mentions the slaughter of Muslims in Chechnya three years before the Beslan massacre. Without being an expert on Bin Laden, we should look at these statements on their surface. Bin Laden uses the word “innocent children,” are there other types of children? Is he setting the pre-emptive response for what would be said if al Qaeda killed “innocent American children?” He mentioned by name, President George H. Bush, as being responsible for the death of over one million Iraqi children. Is this to supplant blame on Bush I and Bush II, and thus showing a trend of killing Muslim children in a systematic manner that transcends this current administration? He mentions that he wants to hurt the American economy in every way he can, surely a series of school attacks would bring on the US economy on many different levels. The U.S. economy would be stressed to the edges, if a series of schools were attacked, would mothers let their children go to school a week later, a month later, a year later? If not, then entire family structures would change for a limited time at least. Mothers and or fathers would have to reschedule their lives to accommodate the new schooling structure that would inevitably come to pass. Would home schooling be the wave of American scholastic landscape? What pressures would be brought to bear on politicians from mothers, educators, school administrators, local and national labor coalitions? Can America afford to use the “wait and see” approach on these questions?

Bin Laden mentioned Chechnya by name, in stating that America is killing Muslims by the millions there and in Palestine, Iraq, Somalia and Philippines, these locations are all scenes of al Qaeda backed terrorist actions in the past. The fact that he uses the word children ten times in one statement is sobering in itself, but the fact that he ties it to other “misdeeds” by the United States is even more chilling. Could he do it? Could he order it done? Could he live with the worldwide Islamic response after ordering the death of 100s, if not 1,000s of school age children in America, the United Kingdom, Australia, Thailand, or any of the sovereign countries that have assisted the United States in its fight or war on terrorism in the holy lands. Sometimes, we as researches don’t have to go far and wide to find information and analysis on subjects such as this. Recently I asked a close friend of mine, what he thought about the prospect of al Qaeda bombing schools in the United States, his statement was that of most of American’s, “No way would they go that far.” Interestingly, he followed his statement with, “they have never put bio agents in our water, nor have they released germs, but they could if they wanted to. They just won’t go that far.” Is that what America thinks, if so, then what are our schools doing if anything to examine the threat. In a 2002 National Association of School Resource Officers (NASRO) survey conducted by Kenneth Trump, M.PA., President of National School Safety and Security Services, the below results were reported. The survey was recorded between July 14-19, 2002 at the 12th Annual NASRO Conference in California. The NASRO handed out 1,000 surveys to the school security officers and executives, 658 of the surveys were returned. The most interesting finding pertaining to this examination of terrorism on schools were:

ON TRAINING: 95% of the school-based police officers feel that their respective schools are vulnerable to a terrorist attack. The School Resource Officers (SRO) reported that they have received limited training and minimal support from outside agencies (local, state and federal) in preparing for a terrorist attack upon their schools. An example of this trend is 33% of the SROs reported that their opportunity to attend specialized training has decreased since 9/11. 66% of the SROs stated that there have been training opportunities that they have not been able to attend even though they have demonstrated a specific need.

ON TERRORISM: 95% of the SROs reported their schools as “vulnerable” to a terrorist attack, with 32% of those describing the vulnerability as very vulnerable. The same respondents stated that 79% of them believe that their schools are not prepared to respond to a terrorist attack on their schools. 82% of the SROs stated that their in-house school security personnel had not received any terrorism specific training. More shockingly, 77% stated that their teachers, administrators and support staff in their schools have not received any terrorism training. No more then 27% of the respondents reported receiving assistance in preparing for a terrorist attack upon their schools from any single listed federal, state or local agency. Further, only 16% stated that they have received support for preparedness of a terrorist attack form the US Department of Education (DOE).

ON SECURITY AND CRISIS PREPAREDNESS: 96% of the SROs described gaining access to school grounds as “very easy.” Over one-third of the SROs reported that a formal security assessment by a qualified professional has not been conducted of their schools in the last five years.

SPECIFIC RESOURCES AND ISSUES: 72% of the officers surveyed said that the FBI was not helpful to them in their day-to-day work as a school based officer. Only 25% of the SROs reported that the US DOE Safe and Drug Free Schools Program provided funding to directly support their work. 35% reported receiving no such funding and 40% were uncertain as to weather the program provided any direct support.

The NASRO survey concluded among others points, that an overwhelming percentage of school-based police officers feel that their schools are vulnerable to a terrorist attack and the vast majority do not feel that schools are adequately prepared to respond to a terrorism attack upon their schools.

In a US DOE advisory paper on schools and terrorism, responding to the above findings, the following points were brought up with points and counter points. In its most encapsulating statement to the possible attacks on schools the report stated, “Although a terrorist attack upon a school in the United States may be improbable, the first step toward preparedness is admitting that it is as least possible that terrorists could strike a school or schools in our country (USA).” Even the US DOE, a federal agency characterized for years by their denying and downplaying of the potential for a terror attack upon American schools, issued an advisory to schools in October 2004 with recommendations for heightening security and emergency preparedness in light of the Beslan, Russia school terror attacks months earlier. In speaking of naysayers to the possibility of terrorist attacks on US schools, the report states that naysayers claim that terrorist attacks upon schools in the US and abroad are statistically rare events and it is extremely rare that a terrorist would attack a school. In actuality the report points out that the Columbine High School attack in 1999 was an extremely rare event which no one ever thought would happen. It was an attack on an America school at a place for which no prior precedent had been established. The impact of the Columbine tragedy changed the landscape of the school safety profession and industry forever, causing many schools to play catch up for decades of neglect in security and emergency management planning. In comparison, the 9/11 attacks on America were extremely rare events which no one ever thought would happen. These were attacks on the US at a level for which no prior precedent had been established. The impact of 9/11 changed the landscape of America homeland security forever, setting unprecedented focus on security and emergency preparedness comparable to no other time in American history. Therefore, to state or imply that we should ignore or downplay the possibility that terrorists would attack American schools or American children overseas defied logic and is contrary to the lessons learned from 9/11, Columbine and Beslan. It is this mindset of denial and Ostrich Syndrome that makes us most vulnerable. It is also a mindset contrary to that of the US Department of Homeland Security which encourages “thinking outside of the box” and being proactive to prevent a future terrorism attack, rather than looking for ways to rationalize “it can’t happen here.” With this mindset, how does America go about preventing these attacks from occurring?

By using the standard method of intelligence analysis; plan/direct, collection, process, analyze/produce and disseminate are in order here. Planning and direction of this problem is basically a simple question, “What can the United States do to prevent a terrorist attack on an American school.” The collection phase would entail examining the schools in question, although impossible to examine all the 90,000+ schools in America, but as an example of what can be done, we should look at all schools in the Washington, D.C. area that U.S. Congress’ children attend, then all the schools in and around major U.S. military installations, especially those bases from which troops in the Iraq and Afghanistan theatre are based. (i.e.: Fort Bragg, NC and Camp Pendleton, CA), along with Jewish schools in the New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. areas, these are the obvious “shock and awe targets” that Al Qaeda would prefer to attack. Attacks on a congressmen’s child’s school would certainly help sway U.S. political fortitude in the ongoing Iraq and Afghanistan military and police operations. Attacks on military base’s school would have a startling effect and would cause grave psychological problems for military members fighting to save Iraqi and Afghani children’s lives, while their own children would be dying or maimed at home, being unprotected by their own government they are fighting for. Processing and analyzing this intelligence would entail accessing the schools in most threat and devising counter-terrorism assessments of the abilities of the enemy and its weaknesses in acting upon attacking these schools. The partial dissemination of the product would be the education of the schools, local and national governments, police departments and federal agencies responsible for school security. Education and awareness are the enemies of terrorism in whole, it is imperative that the terrorist know and realize that the American police have already thought of their schools as targets, that they have already made plans for such an attack. If the Federal Aviation Administration put out a worldwide notice on September 5, 2001 that they would be checking all passengers for box cutters, would 9/11 occurred? And if not, then what would putting Islamists on notice that we know we have vulnerability in our schools hurt?

Talking about the possibility of an attack in a balanced and rational way does not create fear, instead it reduces fear, improves preparedness and has resulted in many death plots to be foiled thanks to heightened awareness. Fear is best managed by education, communication and preparation, not denial. Communication between school communities will reduce risk, heighten security and strengthen emergency preparedness strategies. By taking an “all hazards” approach the schools can prepare for terrorist actions in the name of an all encompassing security assessment.

What were the lessons learned from the Beslan massacre? According to experts in the Russian region and in the United States, the “Beslan Operation” was a suicidal Jihadist mission from the beginning; the three days of negotiations for the release of the suffocating hostages were only a front to popularize their goal of attention to the Islamic causes in the region. Therefore, the same type of mission inside the United States would certainly be arranged as a suicide mission as well. However, the US has not seen a suicide bomber mission within its borders to date. Does that mean that it won’t happen? Certainly not, in looking at Beslan and Bin Laden’s paraphrased statements, there is a certain cause and effect. Simply put, Bin Laden made obvious statements that children were credible targets; accordingly Islamists seized a school and murdered children. There is no giant chasm to cross here to hypothesize that the same will be done in the United States in due time. We are all victims of not repeating history, in this case history is only several years old, and time is on Bin Laden’s side, as it always will be. The intelligence community must come forward and pass on the facts noted in this paper and educate America and its allies on this real threat to America’s children, its economy and its way of life. The acts of September 11th had no precedence, attacks on school children have a clear and present threat, Beslan.